Trends can be important. I learned this first-hand between college and law school, when I served as a Navy nuclear engineering officer. Every time we stood watch in a reactor plant, we had to review the written logs on which other watchstanders had recorded key readings for the major pieces of machinery — temperature, pressure, etc. It was pounded into our heads that we could not look just at the current reading. The current reading might be acceptable, but we had to look at the trend, too, to see if trouble might be brewing — because trouble could impede the ship’s ability to carry out its mission.
Doctors likewise try to be trend-spotters. I have a male relative whose physician noticed a disturbing trend in his prostate-specific antigen readings. My relative’s PSA had been rock-steady for years. Suddenly it started increasing. It was still within the normal range, but the trend was disturbing. Sure enough, it was prostate cancer. Treatment was successful; by noticing the trend, the doctor had saved my relative’s life.
I wonder whether we may be seeing a similar phenomenon in the church, in the form of a non-trivial increase in the number of people who seem to doubt what most regard as the basic doctrines of Christianity. The poll numbers are still well within what traditionalists would regard as acceptable limits. But if this is in fact a trend, it could have troubling implications for the church’s ability to carry out its mission.
Harris Poll surveys (this one, this one, and this one) showed belief statistics as follows:
Resurrection of Jesus:
87% in 1994
88% in July 1998
80% in September 2003
Belief in God:
95% in 1994
94% in January 1998
90% in January 2003
79% in September 2003
Some of these drops are likely just statistical fluctuations, of course.
Interestingly, this January 2003 Harris poll indicates that the people least likely to believe in God, the resurrection of Jesus, the virgin birth, and the devil, are:
- those with college or post-graduate educations, and
- adults ages 25 to 29.
(I hasten to add that majorities in both categories, and sometimes large majorities, believe in all of these things.)
An October 2002 Harris poll indicates that scientists and doctors enjoy considerably more prestige than clergy, with 51% and 25% of survey respondents saying that scientists have “very great prestige” and “considerable prestige,” respectively. The corresponding numbers for clergy are 36% and 25%. Moreover, 11% of the survey respondents said that clergy have “hardly any prestige at all,” while only 2% said that about scientists.
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